No doubt chocolate is one of the most popular and beloved sweet treats of humanity, yet it has been way more than just ordinary candy throughout history. Cacao—the basis of chocolate—was once sacred in ancient Mesoamerica, and so valuable that it ended up being a sort of currency for the Maya civilization. Upon its arrival in Europe in the XVI century, the high costs of cacao production and transportation turned chocolate into a luxury beverage for the elite, up until the onset of the Industrial Revolution.
Nowadays, with a global market worth more than USD 100 billion per year, chocolate has become widely accessible while still representing a vital source of income for many. In the future, though, that might not be the case anymore. A recent study by Dr. Tonya Lander and colleagues, published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment, found that insufficient pollination and rising temperatures threaten the production of cacao on a global scale.
Chocolate’s main raw ingredient comes from the seeds of a tropical tree species called Theobroma cacao, which literally means “food of the gods”. Thought to have originated in the Amazon basin, this plant has become one of the most important commercial crops in the whole tropics. Its treasured seeds, also known as cacao beans, are enclosed in big pod-like fruits that grow directly on the tree trunk. What is most interesting is that fruit development in most cacao varieties depends on insect pollination. That means that without bugs moving pollen from flower to flower, cacao trees will have a hard time producing seeds, and cacao farmers will face financial difficulties. Such a scenario led the authors to wonder how successful the natural pollination of cacao around the globe is.
To find out, the research team embarked on an impressive 4-year quest to hand-pollinate the flowers of 700 cacao trees located in three different countries: Brazil, Ghana, and Indonesia. While doing so, they also monitored the fruit development of unmanipulated flowering trees, freely exposed to their real insect pollinators, to compare the outcome. Besides realizing that the percentage of flowers receiving effective natural pollination in the study sites was very low, researchers noted that human pollination increased cocoa yield by an average of 20% across the three countries. That is clear evidence that low natural pollination rates are preventing cocoa plantations around the world from reaching their maximum fruiting potential.
Now, when it comes to producing fruits, pollination efficiency is not the only thing that matters. Several other factors could influence the physiology of cacao trees, and hence their capacity to set seeds. Take temperature, for example, which is ever more important as our planet keeps warming. Lander and her team further evaluated the influence of climatic variables on the studied plantations and made an alarming discovery: higher temperatures during the hottest month of the year led to a reduction of up to 31% in cacao yield! Indeed, they argue that rising temperatures might not only affect tree physiology but also pollinator abundance and behaviour, suggesting that the global chocolate supply is at substantial risk from climate change.
Unfortunately, this is not merely about finding a better option for a Valentine’s gift. More than 5 million smallholder farmers worldwide depend on cacao production to make a living. But not everything about this research is bitter news. Based on all the evidence gathered, the authors offer practical management strategies to foster cacao production anywhere in the tropics. Spoiler alert: pollinating all trees by hand is not one of them—although humans in some parts of the world are already forced to do so with various crops, as dystopian as it may seem.
“Agricultural production that enhances cocoa pollinator abundance, protects soils, and mitigates climate risks will be the most effective way to secure global cocoa production and support livelihoods into the future”
Instead of perpetually cutting down the forest to expand plantations, preserving native vegetation in the surroundings would ensure the visit of pollinators to cacao flowers, the researchers say. Using fewer agrochemicals and providing a more suitable habitat for flower-visiting insects inside cacao orchards would also aid in the quest to keep chocolate affordable. A group of small flies known as biting midges are the most renowned pollinators of cacao, and they have some clear preferences when choosing a place to live. These tiny bugs fancy moderately shaded homes, and their larvae depend upon decomposing plant material on the forest floor. Luckily, such requirements might be easy to handle in the field.
For example, Dr. Lander and colleagues found non-cacao shade trees to be promising allies in improving plantation yields. Not only because they help suit the needs of pollinating midges, but also because they contribute to decreasing understory temperatures, potentially reducing the adverse effects of hotter seasons. Besides, using other crop trees to provide shade would lead to economic diversification and could boost biodiversity within the plantations, according to the authors. On the other hand, they further observed that maintaining leaf litter on the plantation floor enhances cacao yield and might reduce the need to apply fertilisers. And even though their data did not suggest any role of leaf litter in increasing pollinator abundance, previous research has reported other plant materials to do the job, such as cacao husks and rotting banana stems. So, there is hope for us chocolate lovers! Years of impressive research on the ecology and cultivation of cacao have brought scientists to this point, where they can think of evidence-based alternatives to secure the livelihoods of millions while keeping the food of gods accessible to all. Fingers crossed, much more helpful knowledge is yet to come.
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Lander, T.A., Atta-Boateng, A., Toledo-Hernández, M., Wood, A., Malhi, Y., Solé, M., Tscharntke, T. and Wanger, T.C. (2025). Global chocolate supply is limited by low pollination and high temperatures. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1). doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02072-z.
Andrés Pereira-Guaqueta
Andrés is a Colombian biologist fascinated by plant-animal interactions and eager to share scientific knowledge outside academia. He is currently finishing his master’s degree at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. His main research interests revolve around the relationships between flowering plants and their animal pollinators, and how they respond to our rapidly changing world.
Spanish translation by Andrés Pereira-Guaqueta.
Cover picture: Portrait of an elegant lady and her daughter, three-quarter-length, drinking hot chocolate by Jean Chevalier.
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